NCAA Women's DMR Landscape
Jan 28, 2024 17:19:38 GMT -8
TheDrake, duckoutofwater, and 1 more like this
Post by NateB on Jan 28, 2024 17:19:38 GMT -8
****LONG POST ALERT****
Wanted to make a separate thread about this topic as over the next three weeks I believe the NCAA Women's DMR tops list will definitely be reconstructed and of course the Ducks have already started the onslaught. I think legitimately there are about six teams outside of Oregon that will be in the fray so here is my thoughts about each of them.
Also want to go on record so that if the Stride Report puts out something in the coming weeks you can see that I said it firsts lol!!!
Washington:
Finally broke Oregon's 2017 record by running the existing DMR record of 10:46.62. Three of the Four legs (1200, 400, 800) all return this year but they also have a few additional options that could be added into the mix. They are slated to run in Boston at the Terrier DMR challenge on Feb 16th which is set to include Stanford, BYU, Penn State, Georgetown, and Florida amongst others. This race is designed to be fast and obviously break records which is what BU is famously known for. I am sure the Ducks were invited but they had already had the Boston College meet at the New Balance Center scheduled which is the week before that. Not sure that the Ducks will be taking back to back week trips to Boston when they really don't need to because they already have a time that will surely qualify for nationals and there is bigger fish to fry at Nationals….Back to Washington, I am going to be completely honest. On paper they have the fastest DMR team that can be assembled IMO this year and they can do it a couple different ways. Carley Thomas can run any three of the 1200, 800, 1600 legs but I think if I had to assemble the team I would probably go with Thomas on the 1200. The current Husky record had O'Sullivan run 3:16.2 on the 1200 leg which at the time I believe was the fastest 1200 split on record (which now belongs to Klaudi K from this past weekend running 3:15.7). In the two weekend outings I have seen Thomas she looks to be in the best shape ever. She took down Klaudi K two weeks ago running 4:30 in the mile and she just ran 2:00 in the 800 yesterday. That indicates to me she is very capable of a nasty 3:14 split or faster in the right circumstances. The 400 leg for Washington I think is a wash from last year. Marlena Preigh split 54.2 last year. There is the option to go with her again on the 400 leg or either go with their top 400 runner who has run 55.07 in the open 400 this season. The 800 leg has the option of either using Preigh if she doesn't run the 400 leg or Wilma Nielson who has an indoor 800 PR of 2:02.9 from last season when she ran for Bradley. Nielson opened up in the mile with a 4:37 this weekend but there was collision in the first 100 meters that affected several of the Washington runners (including her) so I would take those mile time with a grain of salt. Finally O'Sullivan I believe would be best on the 1600 leg. She opened up her indoor campaign in the mile this weekend running 4:35 but was also impacted slightly by the collision at the start of the race. She has the fastest 1500 PR in the NCAA after running 4:03 at the World Champs last summer. Not saying she is at that shape right now but she is definitely going to be ready to split 4:28 or faster under the right circumstances. Last year their anchor (who is done with eligibility) split 4:34 so if the middle legs are on par with last year or even a second or two off, I think Thomas and O'Sullivan can gain 5-8 seconds between the two of them. I say all that to say that Washington is capable of running 10:38 -10:42 this year in an all out assault on fresh legs.
Oklahoma State:
I was hoping they ran the DMR this weekend against the Ducks at Arkansas as they have the potential to have a really great squad. They are supposed to be at the Boston College meet in two weeks with the Ducks so not sure if they are planning to go for a fast DMR at that meet. If I had to assemble their team I would go with Jipkirui on the 1200 leg, Galvydyte on the 800, and Roe on Anchor. They have a runner who split 53.2 in the 4x4 at Arkansas this weekend. I think Jipkurui is capable of a 3:16/17 1200 leg, while Galyvdyte is capable of 2:00-2:01 under the right setting, Taylor Roe split 4:31 last year when they ran 10:50 in Arkansas against the Ducks and based on how she looked in her solo 3k PR run this weekend I would bet she can do that again or better. Subtracting the differences from the 10:50 result last year that would put them capable of running around 10:43 or faster.
Stanford:
Has the great dou of Willis and Whittaker who imagine would be the 800 and 1600 legs respectively who could split 1:59 and 4:27/8 if they had to. Lucy Jenks would probably be their 1200 option who just ran 4:36 in the mile this weekend. They also have a 53 second quarter miler. I think they lose a little bit on the top teams in the 1200 leg but they can make that up plus more in the last two legs. 10:43 or faster is in the cards for the Cardinals lol!!!
Providence:
They should eventually be the newest additions to the top DMR schools this year after this weekend's performances. Kimberly may running 4:27 in the mile was amazing but then having another runner Shannon Flockhart run 4:30 right behind her probably makes them have the best 1-2 punch (for now lol) in the mile. Obviously they can run with any 1200/1600 leg in the country. They had another runner run 2:05 in the 800 this weekend, but they may have the weakest 400 option of all the top schools with the top runner only going 57 this year. Their 12/8/1600 legs can still manage to get them under 10:45.
BYU:
They can never be counted out of the equation and this year is no different. Top miler is 4:30 with second and third option at 4:34 and 4:35. A different option for the 800 at 2:03, and a 54 second quarter miler. Their coach knows how to get them to run when it counts and sub 10:45 is not out of the equation for them.
Arkansas:
Has not put their best DMR squad out yet. If they assembled their best squad you would have the runner who ran this weekend at 1200 who split 3:18; they have several options of 49 splits if they are fresh in the 400 and that isn't from the runner who split 51.9 in the DMR this week against Clayton. They have a runner who just ran 2:02 in the open 800 who looked great in both that and the 4x4 so a 2:00 split is not out of the equation. It would just leave them weak at the 1600 leg with the runner who split 4:35 against Elmore. Crazy enough without their 12/1600 legs getting any faster they could still gain 5 seconds between the 400-800 legs alone, and yet people say those legs don't matter!!!! When you give the possibility for their 1200/1600 legs to get better in a couple of weeks as most runners should they could easily take off 7-8 seconds off their 10:49 time. The problem is I am not sure if they are planning travel to either of the Boston races. They usually run at their last chance meet but if all the top schools run before that I don't seem them having the competition needed to run that type of time.
Oregon:
I will go on record and admit that in all out race with all the schools top runners with fresh legs I think the Ducks best lineup would be either Klaudia K, Clayton, Ayyildiz 800, Elmore 1600. Or I could put Nelson back on the 800 leg with Ayyildiz on the 1600. I am not sure there is much of a time difference with either 800/1600 scenario but I do think that if it came down to a battle in the last 100 Ayyildiz would be the one to come up with some needed gears. If someone had been in front of Nelson pulling her through I think she would have run much better on the 800 leg this weekend. I think she is capable of a 2:02/2:03 split if she has someone to chase. Elmore could split 4:30 or faster if she has someone to chase as well. I am really not sure what Ayyildiz ceiling is but her finish is too strong not to think she couldn't split sub 4:30 if needed. She doubled back with a great 800 at 2:05 so running fresh I think she could split 2:02 maybe 2:01 at best on the 800 leg. Either option their could be 6/7 seconds left on the table and a 10:42 or faster could be possible under the right circumstances for the Ducks but I don't know that we will see this team come together because they simply don't need to at this point. Clayton has to go to New Mexico in two weeks in order to try help the squad improve their 4x400 time. It is going to take 3:30-3:31 to make it to National this year. At the Boston meet in two weeks Oregon can run Klaudi K, Nelson, Ayyildiz, and Elmore if they decide got race against Ok State which should have them going 10:45ish at best. But since their 10:47 is going to make it to Nationals regardless I think the focus is trying to get Klaudia and Ayyildiz secured in the mile, the 4x4 secured in New Mexico or either the next meet at Washington, and to get general improvements in the mile from Barnett and Frias for DMR depth’s sake.
Nationals:
The record books will be assaulted in the coming weeks but as we saw last year when Washington women broke the record and even in 2017 when the Ducks broke the DMR record they still lost at Nationals. The problem is to run your best most times it takes runners who qualify individually in open events. That is why having depth and someone who is qualified in the 3k is always the biggest factor. I may get some grief from this but the best case scenario would be having Barnett fresh for the 1200 leg at Nationals meaning she doesn't run the mile also having Nelson fresh for the 800 leg. Could they both potentially qualify individually for the mile/800....it's not out of the realm of possibilities but I don't know if they can score at this point based on how the chips are falling. However a fresh team of Barnett, Clayton, Nelson, and Elmore would be very formidable at Nationals and could score big time. Teams like Washington and Stanford would have to double back multiple runners from the 800 and mile. I think Providence, and BYU could get their 1200/1600 legs qualified in the 3k but if they don’t then they would have runners doubling back also. Arkansas has enough depth that the squad who ran this weekend could be the squad that runs at Nationals and it not impact any of their potential scorers in open events. The Ducks best bet as a team is that Klaudia and Ayyildiz only focus on the mile, the DMR is run with FRESH legs, and Elmore runs the 3k.
This thread should be the where discussion happens in the coming weeks when it all goes down....
Wanted to make a separate thread about this topic as over the next three weeks I believe the NCAA Women's DMR tops list will definitely be reconstructed and of course the Ducks have already started the onslaught. I think legitimately there are about six teams outside of Oregon that will be in the fray so here is my thoughts about each of them.
Also want to go on record so that if the Stride Report puts out something in the coming weeks you can see that I said it firsts lol!!!
Washington:
Finally broke Oregon's 2017 record by running the existing DMR record of 10:46.62. Three of the Four legs (1200, 400, 800) all return this year but they also have a few additional options that could be added into the mix. They are slated to run in Boston at the Terrier DMR challenge on Feb 16th which is set to include Stanford, BYU, Penn State, Georgetown, and Florida amongst others. This race is designed to be fast and obviously break records which is what BU is famously known for. I am sure the Ducks were invited but they had already had the Boston College meet at the New Balance Center scheduled which is the week before that. Not sure that the Ducks will be taking back to back week trips to Boston when they really don't need to because they already have a time that will surely qualify for nationals and there is bigger fish to fry at Nationals….Back to Washington, I am going to be completely honest. On paper they have the fastest DMR team that can be assembled IMO this year and they can do it a couple different ways. Carley Thomas can run any three of the 1200, 800, 1600 legs but I think if I had to assemble the team I would probably go with Thomas on the 1200. The current Husky record had O'Sullivan run 3:16.2 on the 1200 leg which at the time I believe was the fastest 1200 split on record (which now belongs to Klaudi K from this past weekend running 3:15.7). In the two weekend outings I have seen Thomas she looks to be in the best shape ever. She took down Klaudi K two weeks ago running 4:30 in the mile and she just ran 2:00 in the 800 yesterday. That indicates to me she is very capable of a nasty 3:14 split or faster in the right circumstances. The 400 leg for Washington I think is a wash from last year. Marlena Preigh split 54.2 last year. There is the option to go with her again on the 400 leg or either go with their top 400 runner who has run 55.07 in the open 400 this season. The 800 leg has the option of either using Preigh if she doesn't run the 400 leg or Wilma Nielson who has an indoor 800 PR of 2:02.9 from last season when she ran for Bradley. Nielson opened up in the mile with a 4:37 this weekend but there was collision in the first 100 meters that affected several of the Washington runners (including her) so I would take those mile time with a grain of salt. Finally O'Sullivan I believe would be best on the 1600 leg. She opened up her indoor campaign in the mile this weekend running 4:35 but was also impacted slightly by the collision at the start of the race. She has the fastest 1500 PR in the NCAA after running 4:03 at the World Champs last summer. Not saying she is at that shape right now but she is definitely going to be ready to split 4:28 or faster under the right circumstances. Last year their anchor (who is done with eligibility) split 4:34 so if the middle legs are on par with last year or even a second or two off, I think Thomas and O'Sullivan can gain 5-8 seconds between the two of them. I say all that to say that Washington is capable of running 10:38 -10:42 this year in an all out assault on fresh legs.
Oklahoma State:
I was hoping they ran the DMR this weekend against the Ducks at Arkansas as they have the potential to have a really great squad. They are supposed to be at the Boston College meet in two weeks with the Ducks so not sure if they are planning to go for a fast DMR at that meet. If I had to assemble their team I would go with Jipkirui on the 1200 leg, Galvydyte on the 800, and Roe on Anchor. They have a runner who split 53.2 in the 4x4 at Arkansas this weekend. I think Jipkurui is capable of a 3:16/17 1200 leg, while Galyvdyte is capable of 2:00-2:01 under the right setting, Taylor Roe split 4:31 last year when they ran 10:50 in Arkansas against the Ducks and based on how she looked in her solo 3k PR run this weekend I would bet she can do that again or better. Subtracting the differences from the 10:50 result last year that would put them capable of running around 10:43 or faster.
Stanford:
Has the great dou of Willis and Whittaker who imagine would be the 800 and 1600 legs respectively who could split 1:59 and 4:27/8 if they had to. Lucy Jenks would probably be their 1200 option who just ran 4:36 in the mile this weekend. They also have a 53 second quarter miler. I think they lose a little bit on the top teams in the 1200 leg but they can make that up plus more in the last two legs. 10:43 or faster is in the cards for the Cardinals lol!!!
Providence:
They should eventually be the newest additions to the top DMR schools this year after this weekend's performances. Kimberly may running 4:27 in the mile was amazing but then having another runner Shannon Flockhart run 4:30 right behind her probably makes them have the best 1-2 punch (for now lol) in the mile. Obviously they can run with any 1200/1600 leg in the country. They had another runner run 2:05 in the 800 this weekend, but they may have the weakest 400 option of all the top schools with the top runner only going 57 this year. Their 12/8/1600 legs can still manage to get them under 10:45.
BYU:
They can never be counted out of the equation and this year is no different. Top miler is 4:30 with second and third option at 4:34 and 4:35. A different option for the 800 at 2:03, and a 54 second quarter miler. Their coach knows how to get them to run when it counts and sub 10:45 is not out of the equation for them.
Arkansas:
Has not put their best DMR squad out yet. If they assembled their best squad you would have the runner who ran this weekend at 1200 who split 3:18; they have several options of 49 splits if they are fresh in the 400 and that isn't from the runner who split 51.9 in the DMR this week against Clayton. They have a runner who just ran 2:02 in the open 800 who looked great in both that and the 4x4 so a 2:00 split is not out of the equation. It would just leave them weak at the 1600 leg with the runner who split 4:35 against Elmore. Crazy enough without their 12/1600 legs getting any faster they could still gain 5 seconds between the 400-800 legs alone, and yet people say those legs don't matter!!!! When you give the possibility for their 1200/1600 legs to get better in a couple of weeks as most runners should they could easily take off 7-8 seconds off their 10:49 time. The problem is I am not sure if they are planning travel to either of the Boston races. They usually run at their last chance meet but if all the top schools run before that I don't seem them having the competition needed to run that type of time.
Oregon:
I will go on record and admit that in all out race with all the schools top runners with fresh legs I think the Ducks best lineup would be either Klaudia K, Clayton, Ayyildiz 800, Elmore 1600. Or I could put Nelson back on the 800 leg with Ayyildiz on the 1600. I am not sure there is much of a time difference with either 800/1600 scenario but I do think that if it came down to a battle in the last 100 Ayyildiz would be the one to come up with some needed gears. If someone had been in front of Nelson pulling her through I think she would have run much better on the 800 leg this weekend. I think she is capable of a 2:02/2:03 split if she has someone to chase. Elmore could split 4:30 or faster if she has someone to chase as well. I am really not sure what Ayyildiz ceiling is but her finish is too strong not to think she couldn't split sub 4:30 if needed. She doubled back with a great 800 at 2:05 so running fresh I think she could split 2:02 maybe 2:01 at best on the 800 leg. Either option their could be 6/7 seconds left on the table and a 10:42 or faster could be possible under the right circumstances for the Ducks but I don't know that we will see this team come together because they simply don't need to at this point. Clayton has to go to New Mexico in two weeks in order to try help the squad improve their 4x400 time. It is going to take 3:30-3:31 to make it to National this year. At the Boston meet in two weeks Oregon can run Klaudi K, Nelson, Ayyildiz, and Elmore if they decide got race against Ok State which should have them going 10:45ish at best. But since their 10:47 is going to make it to Nationals regardless I think the focus is trying to get Klaudia and Ayyildiz secured in the mile, the 4x4 secured in New Mexico or either the next meet at Washington, and to get general improvements in the mile from Barnett and Frias for DMR depth’s sake.
Nationals:
The record books will be assaulted in the coming weeks but as we saw last year when Washington women broke the record and even in 2017 when the Ducks broke the DMR record they still lost at Nationals. The problem is to run your best most times it takes runners who qualify individually in open events. That is why having depth and someone who is qualified in the 3k is always the biggest factor. I may get some grief from this but the best case scenario would be having Barnett fresh for the 1200 leg at Nationals meaning she doesn't run the mile also having Nelson fresh for the 800 leg. Could they both potentially qualify individually for the mile/800....it's not out of the realm of possibilities but I don't know if they can score at this point based on how the chips are falling. However a fresh team of Barnett, Clayton, Nelson, and Elmore would be very formidable at Nationals and could score big time. Teams like Washington and Stanford would have to double back multiple runners from the 800 and mile. I think Providence, and BYU could get their 1200/1600 legs qualified in the 3k but if they don’t then they would have runners doubling back also. Arkansas has enough depth that the squad who ran this weekend could be the squad that runs at Nationals and it not impact any of their potential scorers in open events. The Ducks best bet as a team is that Klaudia and Ayyildiz only focus on the mile, the DMR is run with FRESH legs, and Elmore runs the 3k.
This thread should be the where discussion happens in the coming weeks when it all goes down....
