Post by NateB on Aug 28, 2023 12:27:24 GMT -8
****Long Post Alert****
For those who are bored and what something to read lol, trying to bring some energy towards the upcoming XC season to the board so thought would spark up some conversations about what's ahead.
Men:
There are a lot of questions that will have to wait to be answered for the Men's lineup this year. I would be very very surprised if any of the new freshman to the line attached. Many of them ran late into the summer and I just don't see the point of trying to rush them into fitness/risking injury when they probably won't change the team trajectory much in the first year. Case in point Josh Edwards ran attached last year after finishing as 4th Oregon runner but unattached at the Dillinger meet and while it was a good learning lesson for him once he put the uniform only once did he score as the 5th runner at the regional meet. That extra year could've served him well down the road when he is a legitimate scorer for the team. I could see a case for him redshirting this year in the fall for that reason. Izaiah Steury is a great addition to the squad and should be a great low stick option for team going forward however he obviously had an issue after the fall and never competed again. I can see a possible redshirt in the fall for him as well to get him healthy and preserve his eligibility for the future when the team is able to fire everyone on all cylinders.
Hussein got injured in the Spring and is just getting back into training and may not be ready for the fall which would have a big piece in the team's success so that is also a reason to factor wether or not to preserve some of the other's eligibility since the team won't be at their very best this year. I do think that we will start to see some of the younger runners from 2021 and 2022 recruiting class toe the line this year. While they may not be top 100 runners at nationals I do think they will be able to start laying the foundation for depth in future years. If Stuery and Edwards redshirt I would expect Quincy Norman to be one of the top scorers for the team and I would expect Stein, Caleb Brown, Slenning, Scasso, Josh Schumacher (if healthy), Cook, Hussein later on in the season, Aiden Smith, and Harrison to be supporting cast. I would be very surprised if Burns or Birnbaum run attached. With the stated lineups the men are probably a top 15-20 team. And even if you add everyone in I don't think it would change much only to be top 10-15. I could be very wrong this is all presumptions on my end.
Women
Women's team have better dynamics and ceiling this year. The biggest factor will be if Victoria Patterson will be eligible to run this fall as it is very unlikely that Mia Barnett will and Sam McDonnell will. Dalia Frias could be eligible but unless she is ready to crack the top 5 it would be smart to preserve her eligibility for the future when needed. I am very excited to see the progress the Women's team makes on the grass after they made so much progress during the track seasons. That indicates that they adjusted well to the new training/coaching and that should translate to a more confident and stronger squad on the grass this fall. There is so much upside comparing last years squad to this years even though majority the of cast members are the same.
I believe ITB can be a top 25 or lower nationals scorer. She should have gained a lot of confidence with her track seasons and now as the veteran of the squad I do believe she will deliver. Elmore was just coming back into running in the fall so that alone gives her so much upside as she was strong but didn't have the speed to close out many of her XC races in the fall not having had any track work for a few years prior. That has obviously changed with her cinderella track season and now she has a great foundation of speed and fitness to build on going into this year unlike last year.
Kazimierska had a long track season going into fall last year and I am sure traveling to a new country and new training environment on top of not having a summer XC base were all factors that left her not in the most confident space last fall. She seems to have gained her confidence back on the track and enjoyed her first year as a duck. I expect that she will be more improved on the grass this fall especially because her training during the track season had to be on par with both ITB and Elmore so now in her mind she would have to know that should be able to run with them on the grass and that would be a significant game changer for the team if she is contending for the 2nd or 3rd scorer. Harper McLain is an interesting one because she didn't run much outside of the steeple outdoors so her track times to me don't indicate her true fitness as we all know she is not naturally built for that event. However for her to improve so much in the steeple and they way she was closing the last 400 in some cases almost just as quick as the top runners indicates her fitness was much greater then her technique was allowing her to demonstrate. I am very curious to see what she does on the grass without the barriers. She, Elmore, and Kazimierska have the ability to be top 40/50 runners or better nationally IMO.
Girard was very consistent as the number 2/3 scorer in all of the meets she competed in last fall. It's unfortunate that she got injured as I think her track season would have been much better then it was. She a did a good job of rebounding outdoors and making the best of it but I don't think her outdoor results were indicative of the fitness level she was on course to having based on her quality XC in the fall. The scary part is that if she makes another leap in fitness I don't see why she wouldn't be a top 50/60 national scorer as well. Which means the Oregon returners from last year have 5 runners with the potential of cracking the top 50-60 in my opinion. That doesn't even factor in Victoria Patterson who may be eligible or the rest of the transfers who may not be eligible.
Melissa Berry IMO is a darkhorse. I wouldn't be surprised if she threatens to get into the top 5 at some point this season after her breakout track season. I do think it didn't serve her well to do the 10k at the conference and regional meets. The 5k seems to be her best distance as its not too long and it allows her time to use her now developed kick. Last year she was a bit too anxious on the grass but that was before they figured out a race pattern on the track that would allow her to be patient and move up on the back half of the race. If she uses this strategy this year on the grass it could very well net positive results for her. With new found confidence and a strong base she has the tools to offer depth for the team in the event someone goes down. I definitely think she is a top 100 or better nationals runner. I also think both Thompson and Nelson will be better runners this fall which could round out a top 7-10 runners depending on Patterson and Frias' eligibility. I wouldn't be surprised if all of the freshman ladies redshirt. I can't see them being in position to score amongst the top 6/7 as it's just too good and deep this year so might as well save them for the future when needed.
Where does that leave the women's team in an overall standing. The first test will be at the Dillinger meet when they face a pretty good BYU squad who should be a top 10 team this year. At the conference level Colorado is the clear favorite as they have a team that could potentially contend for a national title on paper. Stanford has a good squad but I think Oregon will be better again this year at conference. Nationally it is so hard the Ducks could run out of this world having 5 runners in the top 60 (which is what they did at the 2016 to win) and still get 6th or 7th at Nationals. It's just so top heavy right now on paper with teams like NC State, Colorado, NAU, Notre Dame, Florida, OK State, and UNC possibly BYU and Stanford. It's going to be very hard to get on the podium. It's going to require at least one in the top 15, another in the top 25, with the 5th scorer in the top 50/60 just to get 4th place.
For those who are bored and what something to read lol, trying to bring some energy towards the upcoming XC season to the board so thought would spark up some conversations about what's ahead.
Men:
There are a lot of questions that will have to wait to be answered for the Men's lineup this year. I would be very very surprised if any of the new freshman to the line attached. Many of them ran late into the summer and I just don't see the point of trying to rush them into fitness/risking injury when they probably won't change the team trajectory much in the first year. Case in point Josh Edwards ran attached last year after finishing as 4th Oregon runner but unattached at the Dillinger meet and while it was a good learning lesson for him once he put the uniform only once did he score as the 5th runner at the regional meet. That extra year could've served him well down the road when he is a legitimate scorer for the team. I could see a case for him redshirting this year in the fall for that reason. Izaiah Steury is a great addition to the squad and should be a great low stick option for team going forward however he obviously had an issue after the fall and never competed again. I can see a possible redshirt in the fall for him as well to get him healthy and preserve his eligibility for the future when the team is able to fire everyone on all cylinders.
Hussein got injured in the Spring and is just getting back into training and may not be ready for the fall which would have a big piece in the team's success so that is also a reason to factor wether or not to preserve some of the other's eligibility since the team won't be at their very best this year. I do think that we will start to see some of the younger runners from 2021 and 2022 recruiting class toe the line this year. While they may not be top 100 runners at nationals I do think they will be able to start laying the foundation for depth in future years. If Stuery and Edwards redshirt I would expect Quincy Norman to be one of the top scorers for the team and I would expect Stein, Caleb Brown, Slenning, Scasso, Josh Schumacher (if healthy), Cook, Hussein later on in the season, Aiden Smith, and Harrison to be supporting cast. I would be very surprised if Burns or Birnbaum run attached. With the stated lineups the men are probably a top 15-20 team. And even if you add everyone in I don't think it would change much only to be top 10-15. I could be very wrong this is all presumptions on my end.
Women
Women's team have better dynamics and ceiling this year. The biggest factor will be if Victoria Patterson will be eligible to run this fall as it is very unlikely that Mia Barnett will and Sam McDonnell will. Dalia Frias could be eligible but unless she is ready to crack the top 5 it would be smart to preserve her eligibility for the future when needed. I am very excited to see the progress the Women's team makes on the grass after they made so much progress during the track seasons. That indicates that they adjusted well to the new training/coaching and that should translate to a more confident and stronger squad on the grass this fall. There is so much upside comparing last years squad to this years even though majority the of cast members are the same.
I believe ITB can be a top 25 or lower nationals scorer. She should have gained a lot of confidence with her track seasons and now as the veteran of the squad I do believe she will deliver. Elmore was just coming back into running in the fall so that alone gives her so much upside as she was strong but didn't have the speed to close out many of her XC races in the fall not having had any track work for a few years prior. That has obviously changed with her cinderella track season and now she has a great foundation of speed and fitness to build on going into this year unlike last year.
Kazimierska had a long track season going into fall last year and I am sure traveling to a new country and new training environment on top of not having a summer XC base were all factors that left her not in the most confident space last fall. She seems to have gained her confidence back on the track and enjoyed her first year as a duck. I expect that she will be more improved on the grass this fall especially because her training during the track season had to be on par with both ITB and Elmore so now in her mind she would have to know that should be able to run with them on the grass and that would be a significant game changer for the team if she is contending for the 2nd or 3rd scorer. Harper McLain is an interesting one because she didn't run much outside of the steeple outdoors so her track times to me don't indicate her true fitness as we all know she is not naturally built for that event. However for her to improve so much in the steeple and they way she was closing the last 400 in some cases almost just as quick as the top runners indicates her fitness was much greater then her technique was allowing her to demonstrate. I am very curious to see what she does on the grass without the barriers. She, Elmore, and Kazimierska have the ability to be top 40/50 runners or better nationally IMO.
Girard was very consistent as the number 2/3 scorer in all of the meets she competed in last fall. It's unfortunate that she got injured as I think her track season would have been much better then it was. She a did a good job of rebounding outdoors and making the best of it but I don't think her outdoor results were indicative of the fitness level she was on course to having based on her quality XC in the fall. The scary part is that if she makes another leap in fitness I don't see why she wouldn't be a top 50/60 national scorer as well. Which means the Oregon returners from last year have 5 runners with the potential of cracking the top 50-60 in my opinion. That doesn't even factor in Victoria Patterson who may be eligible or the rest of the transfers who may not be eligible.
Melissa Berry IMO is a darkhorse. I wouldn't be surprised if she threatens to get into the top 5 at some point this season after her breakout track season. I do think it didn't serve her well to do the 10k at the conference and regional meets. The 5k seems to be her best distance as its not too long and it allows her time to use her now developed kick. Last year she was a bit too anxious on the grass but that was before they figured out a race pattern on the track that would allow her to be patient and move up on the back half of the race. If she uses this strategy this year on the grass it could very well net positive results for her. With new found confidence and a strong base she has the tools to offer depth for the team in the event someone goes down. I definitely think she is a top 100 or better nationals runner. I also think both Thompson and Nelson will be better runners this fall which could round out a top 7-10 runners depending on Patterson and Frias' eligibility. I wouldn't be surprised if all of the freshman ladies redshirt. I can't see them being in position to score amongst the top 6/7 as it's just too good and deep this year so might as well save them for the future when needed.
Where does that leave the women's team in an overall standing. The first test will be at the Dillinger meet when they face a pretty good BYU squad who should be a top 10 team this year. At the conference level Colorado is the clear favorite as they have a team that could potentially contend for a national title on paper. Stanford has a good squad but I think Oregon will be better again this year at conference. Nationally it is so hard the Ducks could run out of this world having 5 runners in the top 60 (which is what they did at the 2016 to win) and still get 6th or 7th at Nationals. It's just so top heavy right now on paper with teams like NC State, Colorado, NAU, Notre Dame, Florida, OK State, and UNC possibly BYU and Stanford. It's going to be very hard to get on the podium. It's going to require at least one in the top 15, another in the top 25, with the 5th scorer in the top 50/60 just to get 4th place.
